Will the PS3 and 360 gap grow or close in 2011?

[DarkintheLight]

Michael-5 said:

DarkintheLight said:

Michael-5 said:

 

I think your giving too much credit to the average consumer, people in general are dumb. When people see a new Uncharted, Gears, Halo, Forza, or Gran Turismo title, it's a system seller regardless. I'm just getting a Wii now and Super Mario Galaxy 2 was one of the games that pushed me over. Yes a sequel because I now know I can get 2 3D Mario titles, but in reality DKCR, Metroid Prime 3, and Pikmin 3 were really bigger factors.

Twisted Metal, and The Last Guardian are not well heard of games to those who don't already own a PS3. They are library filling titles, for either franchise fans, or people who are well aware of the PS3 library. I mean the tie ratio for the more modern home consoles (PS2, PS3, 360, Xbox) is about 10, meaning the average PS3 owner owns 10 games, for the person without a PS3 so far, chances are they won't get more then 10 games, and I just don't see Twisted Metal being so impactful that it will lure new console buyers. I say this as a big TM fan (I own TM 1-4, Black, Small Brawl and Head On for the PS2).

The Last Guardian will bring in new gamers, but again I see this as a library filling title, a must have game for those who are well informed. This is not going to be a blockbuster hit (in terms of sales), and increase the popularity of the Playstation image that much.

Halo and Gran Turismo on the other hand are more then just games, they are trends in culture. I'm not a big CoD fan, but all my friends play it, so I got Black Ops. A lot of people who have friends who own a 360, who maybe love Gears of War, maybe passed on the 360 for one reason or another in the past (too expensive, waiting on a price cut, waiting for reliability to go up, or a slim model, etc) might be tempted to play.

It's like in movies, if they made an Avatar 2, a lot more people would go see the movie just based off name then a different AAA title. Even if they never seen the first, everyone else has and is planning on seeing the second.

Hype builds sales, so naturally the bigger budget, high volume hyped games will sell the most consoles. So Uncharted 3 is by far the biggest System seller the PS3 has.

I mean LBP2 is bigger then TM, and 360 still outsold the PS3 (marginally) on the launch week on LBP2. I think a similar situation will happen for Killzone 3, as well as TM, The Last Guardian, Mech Warrior, XCOM, Prey 2, InFamous 2, and so on.

MechWarrior will likely be a timed exclusive, I agree, but we don't know for certain. A lot of games people thought would be timed exclusive, stayed exclusive. E.G. The Last Remnant, and se far Splinter Cell Conviction. So for now it's fair to say exclusive. I mean I beleive FFXIII Versus will also eventually go multiplatform, but I don't stop calling it a PS3 exclusive, not at all.

Also no PS3 is not outselling the 360 on a weekly basis, 360 was on shortages in the start of January due to the increased volume of sales in the christmas period. Haven't you noticed the 360 had a steep drop at the start of January and been leveling off more slowly then all the other consoles? MS themselves said that shortages won't be met until at earliest February, so in reality the 360 is outselling the PS3 now, but not by much.

2011 PS3/360 games:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=3875415

Tell me if I missed any or if you disagree on how well each game will sell.

Blame it on shortages all you want the fact is ps3 outsold 360 as for your other points there are alot of twisted metal fans, and there hasn't been a twisted metal out since ps2 (same with GT5) Last Guardian is a bit of a wild card, it already has more hype and attention then it should, and it has it because it's predecessors were such high quality, also shadow of the collosus was the last big ps2 game, so anyone who has a ps2 who has played those games will be looking at a ps3 and it can easily be a factor in tipping anyones scale through sheer uniqueness and high praise as for Uncharted and Killzone the only people I can see new titles to is 360 owners, at anyrate I feel Sony has all their basis covered, and MS is seriously lagging they have a few games that MIGHT become noteworthy (some of it MS themselves has no stake in) but I just don't see it coming close to beating Sony's line-up and frankly I don't see how you can either, the few games that might be 360 exclusive and might be released in 2010 we know next to nothing about it could be last remenant all over again (was just too bad and did too poorly to bother finishing the port) and conviction hasn't been on the market for a year yet so that could still go, MS has had several year exclusives (to the day)

I think it's fair to blame 360's low sales in January on shortages when Microsoft themselves announced shortages for at least the month of January, and noting that on the prior week PS3 marginally outsold the 360, but this week, the week of LBP2's launch 360 outsold the PS3. 360 was selling about 30% in November and December, why would that stop in January? Kinect is still outselling everything else, except LBP2 on launch week, but I guess we will have to wait until next week to see if 360 opens the gap a bit more or not.

GT5 barely budged PS3 system sales, and GT is quite literally 10x as big of a franchise. Twisted Metal will not push a noticable amount of consoles. Last Guardian might push consoles in the grand scheme, but on week 1 you will probably not see a boost, at least no more then the boost LBP2 gave, so maybe 15%?

Also, please use periods! That entire comment was one giant sentance and it's hard to read when it's all expressed as a single point.

Did you look at the link? 16 360 titles, compared to 18 PS3 titles, and in the grand scheme the sum of all the 360 games will sell more then the sum of all the PS3 games. Ontop of that, chances are MS has more Kinect titles planned that we just don't know about, I just can't see Sony supporting the Move as much as MS supports Kinect.

There is no reason to beleive PS3 has more software in 2011. It just has more sequels. Of the games listed 8/16 360 games are sequels/prequel (and thats counting Star Wars Kinect as a sequel), and 13/18 of the PS3 games are sequels/prequels, plus one straight HD port (ICO Collection).

I just don't understand how you think PS3 has this massivly larger software lineup, because I've shown it doesn't. Yea you say Sony will likely announce 7 more titles (ontop of the rumoured titles included in the first 18), making 25 exclusives for 2011, but if thats the case, MS will likely announce significantly more Kinect titles.

In the end, you just mock the 360 lineup because it's star titles are sequels (Gears 3, Forza 4, maybe a Halo remake, and Project Dragoon/Steel Batallion for Kinect), but in reality PS3 is the same (Uncharted 3, Killzone 3, LBP2, Twisted Metal, and The Last Guardian).

Also if you've ever played The Last Remnant, it's pretty good. It was ported to PC, just never PS3 because Square Enix and Tri-Ace agreed to make 3 of their RPG's 360 exclusive outside of Japan (Infinite Undiscovery, The Last Remnant, and Star Ocean). This is the same concept as Atlus agreeing to keep Disgaea and Demon Souls PS3 exclusive, when Disgaea could easily be ported onto the Wii. As for Infinite Undiscovery, it's an under-rated RPG, it's better then FFXIV, and probably going to be better then FFXIII-2.

The better question is did you look at the link it's missing several confirmed ps3 titles (Hyperdimension Neptunia, Ar tonelico Qoga, MLB 11 The Show, PixelJunk Shooter 2, Journey ect.) and many on there are on therer for all systems are just rumored and ones probably won't even come out in 2011 not to mention not even confirmed 360 exclusive or 360/pc, that list just isn't accurate in the least and seems to be just trying to make MS and Sony look even.

360 always sells more on the holidays because it's cheaper and they advertise more and Sony always stomps them in between and usually ends up with 1 million closer, and thats when their line up software is even, the question is why do you think it won't change, and LBP 2 not effecting sales is pretty meaningless if someone didn't buy the console for the first one it's doubtful they will for the second.

When I mock halo, forza and gears it's not because their sequels, it's because of how much MS is milking and dependant on them, most of Sony's sequels this year were fresh (and rather innovative) IPs, halo and gears are getting stale.

As for last remenant they canceled the ps3 port after already announcing that they were going to have it in 2 weeks, I don't doubt that they counted it as one of them but they pulled the plug because of it's poor performance and Star Ocean is on ps3 so there goes your credibility