Will the PS3 and 360 gap grow or close in 2011?

[Michael-5]

gergroy said:

Michael-5 said:

gergroy said:

wow at the people talking about games announced in 2011 affecting system sales.  Really, at this point in a consoles life, new games don't really move systems.  You'll see slight bumps, but nothing that is going to affect the gap in the long term.  

I think large titles still affect console sales, and a strong supply of exclusives keeps people talking about their respective consoles.

However with strong multiplatform titles (Modern Warfare 3, Crysis 2, L.A. Noire, Batman, Driver, NFS, etc) I think there is enough talk among HD games.

Maybe on the internet forums, but in real life, people don't come flocking into stores when a new game comes out to buy a system.  

If you need any proof of that, look at GT5.  The game that was going to close the gap, the savior of the ps3, didn't have much of any noticeable impact on sales.  

Like I said, small bumps is all we will see from here on out.  The Libarary of games are pretty much established, there are multiple games on each console that could appeal to different demographics, so it isn't like one game is going to push a huge amount of people to one system.  

The time for system sellers is over, now all the console manufacturers are doing is trying to retain owners interest with new captivating software.  

Edit: On second thought, there is still a limited market for systems sellers, but it is on Kinect and Move, as both peripherals try to appeal to a casual demographic that neither the ps3 or xbox had before.  However, there aren't going to be any core games that are going to cause more than a slight bump for a week or two.  So all this Killzone or Gears talk is useless.  They'll move software, not hardware.

GT5 did boost PS3 sales, just no more then Halo: Reach boosted 360 sales. lol

I still think a new Halo or CoD title will boost sales. If you look at console sales in 2010, you will see a huge spike on the week CoD and Halo were released. I think if one of the two HD consoles has significantly more exclusives, then you will notice that the respective HD console will get more advertizing, and a slightly larger bump in the holiday season. I mean no game will be as impactful as Kinect, but Kinect definatly helped 360 sell maybe 1-2 million extra units in 2010. Large games like GT, Halo, and CoD should do the same, but in a smaller scale, maybe 1/4 as big.

So say in Fall 2011 ALL of PS3's exclusives get delayed. No Resistance, Uncharted, Twisted Metal, The Last Guardian, none of it. Say no CoD:MW3 on PS3 for an extreme, impossible case. People looking at a new HD console will walk into a Gamestop and see ads for Modern Warfare 3, Gears 3, Kingdoms, Forza 4, and Kinect games like Steel Batallion and Project Dragon, but see nothing specific to the PS3. 360 will get maybe 3 million more sales then PS3.

However since PS3 has an exclusive lineup, the boost each console gets will be pretty even.

My point was only that big budget games still affect system sales, they generate hype and people looking for a new console know 360/PS3 have the games they want. Will the difference grow or shrink because of this? No because both Sony and MS have a strong exclusive line-up.

However I still think the difference will grow because I see MS publishing several Kinect exclusive titles this year, and thats just an experience PS3 cannot emulate, so people who are interested in Kinect (which could almost be considered a new system), will see 360 is the only console which offers controller free gaming.

Still, I agree with you in the end, I know new games will only make small bumps to hardware sales, but if PS3 and 360 had a significant imbalance in the number of exclusive games (specifically exclusive blockbuster titles), then I could see one console selling better then the other. I also think Kinect software will drive hardware, but it won't necessarily be limited to individual games.