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I think the majority of DS's sold are to young children, even multiples to the same family.  I don't think at the $249 price point Nintendo can hope to repeat their success they had with the original DS.

I really don't think brand loyalty comes into play with the DS success.  I also agree that iOS devices will do nothing but hurt 3DS sales.  I don't think that they're going to kill it or anything, but it certainly can't help.

In the end, the 3DS will sell, I just don't see it selling as well as the DS.