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If we see third party games like:

Monster Hunter

Assassin's Creed

Call of Duty

GTA

Final Fantasy

becoming multiplat (just as every single HD game gets PC/PS3/Xbox360 ports this gen) what will make the difference are the first/second party (exclusive) games. Unfortunately, Sony haven't had a single first/second game capable to sell 5 million in the PSP. However Nintendo have had many of its first/second party games selling more than 5 million and even some crossing 20 million, so it's pretty clear that in a multiplat market, without new franchises, Sony will not be able to win the next generation (probably by far) as well.