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Unless PSP2 is a huge success (much bigger than PSP1) or if people lose intrest in handelds and game with their phones (never gonna happen) i don't see why 3DS wont sell more than DS1.

DS is probably the least popular system among hardcore (yes Wii included) yet its the best sold console of all time. 3DS is 3D, handheld from Nintendo and has core games. It will be successful in all markets, not just for kids and casual gamers like DS. Of course with the current price, it will never reach those numbers, but 5-6 years from now, it will cost like a DS lite does today.