When will X360 overtake the PS2 in the UK?

[AussieGecko]

Michael-5 said:

AussieGecko said:

Michael-5 said:

I think somewhere between scenario 1 and 2, but I agree with the reasoning from 2 and 3. I think Kinect will keep 360 sales strong in 2011 and 2012, but 360 sales will likely collapse when a successor console is released. This is not the casual steamboat PS2 was. 9 million sales in UK sounds realistic to me.

Thing thing with that is in 2011 and 2012 is the kinect effect is so successful xbox wont have found a reason to create a successor until sony has started doing it. Or perhaps wii this is the reason i am seeing is why it can overtake

Kinect is and will continue to be successful, but it's not a new console, and it's not going to extend the 360's life by more then a couple years. Wii sales are already starting to drop, and at latest, Nintendo will release a successor console by 2013 (likely 2012). I don't think either Sony or MS will just sit back and let Nintendo take even more of the market away from them.

Remember the 360 came out in 2005, before this gen the average life expectancy of a successful console was about 6 years. I really doubt a successor to the 360 wil come out any later then 2013, as that is the 360 will have already been an 8 year old console.

Also if you look at games, trends show that a new generation of consoles is near. None of the big 3 are developing any new IP's, but older IP's are getting reboots. The big games of 2011 so far are Mass Effect 3, Gears 3, Uncharted 3, Forza 4, InFamous 2, Zelda, a potential Halo 1 remake, etc Almost all sequels. Also very rarely does a franchise see more then 3 installments per console. Final Fantasy always sees 3 games per generation (3 NES, 3 SNES, 3 PS1, 3 PS2, and so far 2 this gen). Also many of the big games have been expliciatly stated to be trilogy's. Uncharted, Gears, Halo, Resistance, Forza, Modern Warfare, and Mass Effect will all see third third installment by years end, and these are literally the biggest HD exclusives (not forgetting GT5, and MGS4).

It's only a matter of time before Nintendo announces their Wii successor to kill off Kinects popularity, and MS/Sony will follow and make a compeditor console.

yes but if the wii successor is a controller based system it will have no effect at all on kinect imo.

Codename kingdoms would be considered a new ip would it not? See that is the thing you are basing off half of your argument on previous generations, I think this generation has proven it will follow its own rules, and codename kingdoms imo is enough to show that Microsoft is finished with Kinect just yet.

Mark Rein (epic) also retweeted a topic today about unreal engine3 and kinect. http://ht.ly/3Fj7P have a read of that. The Kinect is yet to be optimised with UE3 when it does it will (when this works (whats in the link)) extremely extend the life of the xbox.