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Good to see Halo on top.  We halo fans are definitely quite the breed eh haha.  

As for what Gilgamesh is saying, it does seem to be hard to predict but one constant feature seems to be the more mainstream the bigger the increase from reserves to first week.  Works relatively well on most of them although a few do leak through.  Those that don't show as large of an increase could be due to season (or not holiday season) and how well advertised the game was before launch (ie why Reach may not have had as large of an increase as others).  

So pretty interesting if ya ask me.