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I think this year will be a "saw-off"...  PS3 will lead until 360 gets supply in order in early Feb.  Then, 360 will lead until April-ish.  Then, PS3 will get a price cut and take the lead through summer.  Then, 360 will price cut in Madden/September timeframe and they will re-take the lead.  By holiday 2011 they will be running neck and neck for the year.  And at the end of the year the difference will not be significant.