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While I agree that the announced exclusive titles for 2011 favor the PS3, I think the libraries for each of these systems are very established and therefore singular releases, regardless of quality, will have limited strategic effect on sales of the PS3 or 360.

Therefore I'd estimate that the biggest drivers to sales this year for the HD systems are Kinect/Move and price cuts.

I don't see a $100 price cut on the PS3 this year (I expect $50), nor do I see a price drop at all on the Kinect (or Move)..so my 'assumptions' (no price cut on Kinect/360, $50 on PS3) lead me to believe that the gap will remain relatively static over the course of the year.  Down in some points of the year, increasing in others = no large change by years end.