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Kinect presents a big growth opportunity for 360, so if it continues to take off as it has been, the gap will obviously grow as well.  Sony doesn't really have anything comparable, Move's been a total non-starter (mostly due to Sony's handling of it themselves) and their lineup for the year is loaded with nothing but sequels that should please the base, but do little to actually grow it.

A 6.5m or higher gap by 2012 wouldn't surprise me in the least.  Microsoft's likely Q1 shortages may brunt that some though.