Sooo.. 65M by 2012?

[Mummelmann]

damndl0ser said:

Mummelmann said:

yo_john117 said:

Yes I say it will most certainly get to 65 million by the end of 2011, and quite easily at that.

Heck even 66-68 million by the end of 2011 is a possibility.

Woah woah, you think its gonna outsell the Wii? I think people are going a bit nuts over Kinect success and 360's holiday numbers after Slim revision. Same thing happened for the PS3 after Slim revision and price cut, stellar holiday but it went down a fair deal the year after (holidays 2010 and end of Q1 and all of Q2 was pretty quiet as well). The two HD consoles behave very much alike and I don't think there's any reason to believe that any of the three consoles will peak this year (they already have, imo).

The difference being that Kinect has a given the 360 something that the Move hasn't, the casual gamer.  

I honestly don't think that neither of the HD consoles has peaked yet.  The PS3 will sell like hot cakes once it gets another $50 price cut.  I also think there is a strong possibility that the PS3 and the 360 will both outsell the Wii during the summer months.  But the Wii always comes on strong during the Holiday season.

There is the possibility that the 360 will also see a big upswing in the 2011 Holiday season much like the Wii does.  So its going to be an interesting year thats for sure.

PS3 and 360 outselling the Wii for some months is not out of the question, I agree with you there. It could be possible for them to peak this year but it would require some pretty heavy price cuts, I'm not sure 50$ would do it to be honest. At this point (in the console lifecycle), software doesn't help move a lot of hardware so price cuts is probably the only viable option for MS and Sony to have a good peak year this year.

What surprises me is that MS appears to have effectively pushed their console into the same loop as the two others, delaying the decline with a year to make the playing field even, Kinect and the Slim revision are most likely the main catalyst behind this. I must say I'm thoroughly impressed by the impact this has had in 2010 but I remain unsure as to what kind of impact it will carry into 2011, especially in the summer months. Come fall, we may yet again see the HD consoles selling the most and remaining close to one another like last year but Kinect and price cuts remain jokers for now, its simply too hard to tell (for me at least... ) what will happen.

One thing remains certain though; 2011 will be the closest race we've seen on Vgchartz!