Kinect's early success is a referendum on Nintendo.

[Gojimaster]

Erik Aston said:

The success of Kinect was enabled because Nintendo created the market for it, and then didn't aggressively pursue it. Nintendo, it seems, can hardly identify who their core audience--their NEW core audience--is anymore, and are only interminently interested in giving them what they want. Nintendo failed to fulfill the promise of Wii, and now Wii users are leaving for Kinect.

Aren't we making some pretty big assumptions here?  Nintendo just celebrated its 5th Christmas season and had near-record sales levels in the US.  People love Kinect, but the Wii is still immensely popular-- I talked to a number of women at work that just bought a Wii this year and are loving it. M$ doesn't have the software development potential of Nintendo and all the established IPs. I also think it is a logical fallacy to think that Wii users are leaving for Kinect. Many of the casual users have both Kinect and Wii at this point.  Many people prefer Wii for social/casual gaming because of the 4-player support which Kinect has not been able to deliver. 

Kinect is great but it is still only in its infancy.  No doubt it will continue to sell well, but it still has a lot to prove.  Most of the games scheduled to be released look pretty uninspired so far.