This seems tough. It will have to do better than New Super Mario Bros. Wii did in 2010. (NSMB Wii dropped below 75k in June, and was below it for quite a few weeks in Q3).
I don't think any non-Wii Sports title has managed 75k every week for its second calendar year. Mario Kart Wii was awfully close, but dropped to 74k in the last week of August 2009. Wii Fit would have made it had it not been for Wii Fit Plus, but it didn't make it.
Oh, it seems Wii Sports Resort made it.
So you're predicting that Kinect will do something that only two games has done before, and those two games are likely to end up being the best selling and second/third best selling games of the generation (barring Wii Sports).
Now, it's going to be far tougher for Kinect to do it, mainly because it has to do it from far lower software sales than Mario Kart Wii and Wii Sports Resorts had.
I doubt Kinect is going to make it. I see it trending more like New Super Mario Bros Wii did. That's mighty impressive still, though.
