kowenicki said:
2011 > 2010 ?? I'm thinking so. |
At this point im thinking somewhere between 1M less and 4M more than 2010 for 2011, a range of around 5M! It is just that we have too many variables such as the appeal of various Kinect releases, timing of price cuts and any other features they might or might not add. On balance im going for 15M as my baseline prediction for 2011 given we have 14M on the boards for 2010 already but the slim hardware effect is probably burning off so next year is all on Kinect and price cuts.
What will really give us an idea is January YOY comparing what Kinect does as we move outside of the initial short term boost. I can sort of see January as a month where Kinect sales become more dominant as a driver of the console sales compared to the other two so we can see how the drop in hardware sales compares to the Wii and PS3.
For price cuts im sort of expecting they do something in June, they had major success with the slim model in 2010 at E3 so announcing a price cut to all the gaming press there would be a good time to do something crazy like have Alan Greenburg walk onto the stage and announce "The Xbox 360 will start at $139" or something similar and then sit down to do some kind of funny mirroring of that famous Sony E3.
Tease.
