I think MS's initial Kinect pricing was/is similar to Nintendo's initial Wii (and now 3DS) pricing - we are pricing it so not because that is the actual fair price but because we can (we think it will still sell well even at that price). It just may be that stores are getting a very nice margin on Kinects, and now that the holidays are over, they are allowed to play more with its price (maybe MS didn't allow it beforehand) in order to attract customers (same as the sale of any hot item).
I seriously doubt that the Kinect has been overshipped, there seems to be ample demand for it.
Currently Playing: Shin Megami Tensei: Devil Survivor Overclocked, Professor Layton and the Curious Village
Anticipating: Xenoblade, The Last Story, Mario Kart 7, Rayman Origins, Zelda SS, Crush3D, Tales of the Abyss 3DS, MGS:Snake Eater 3DS, RE:Revelations, Time Travellers, Professor Layton vs. Ace Attorney, Luigi's Mansion 2, MH TriG, DQ Monsters, Heroes of Ruin







