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I would go ahead and say no.  While I do expect the 360 to sell great in 2011 I just don't see it outselling the Wii. 

However if MS does heavily support Kinect and brings out some more solid software for both hardcore and casual audiences it does have a chance at doing it.  To me the deciding factor between the two will be how well Kinect holds up in sales over the year not counting holidays.