Microsoft had Kinect, the Slim, Halo, and Fable this year and they still didn't take down the Wii. It looked close for awhile, but Nintendo utterly obliterated the Christmas season worldwide and I see no reason why next year would be any different.
Kinect is obviously huge, but I don't see it being as big as it was this Christmas ever again. Microsoft spent half a billion advertising it, and there's no way they can keep that up
Nintendo has Skyward Sword, and they can afford to drop the price on the Wii whenever they want. The last price drop was in September 2009, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a 25-50 dollar drop sometime in 2011. The Last Story will be big in Japan, though it remains to be seen what kind of legs it will have. There's also Dragon Quest X and Pikmin 3, but we don't have any information about those other than that they exist.
And there's no reason Nintendo couldn't throw together a bundle with a title like Donkey Kong Country Returns or Wii Party, along with some new color of the console.
I also think the Xbox 360's sales could be affected by the PS3. If Sony were to introduce a $199 SKU to go along with their crazy lineup for next year, it could really cut into the Xbox 360's potential audience.
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