| enrageorange said: i can see all three systems topping 80mil. Sony and Microsoft will not go to next gen until their systems stop selling. At the current rate sony has a few years to go. Microsoft did really well with kinect and seems to have a few years left as well. Nintendo has said they don't plan on releasing a new console any time soon and as long as they don't I really don't see anything that will prevent the ps3 and 360 from passing the 60, 70, and maybe even 80mil mark. |
Nintendo will release their Wii successor in 2012, possibly as early as Q1 2012 for Japan. But it will probably be PS3-plus spec and not a full generational leap over the HD twins (similar to how 3DS is PSP-plus spec), so MS and Sony will have a little more breathing room and can hold out until as late as 2014 before doing their next gens (though I'd expect one to jump earlier, probably Sony first). 3rd parties will prefer that anyway, no one wants another generational leap (and the massive upfront investment losses that brings) anytime soon, and the possibly of adding a "Wii 2" to their middleware multiplatform driven PC/360/PS3 platform trifecta will be extremely attractive. Get ready for RE5 Wii 2 edition to sell another 2 million...
As far as passing 80m, I can see how both 360 and PS3 could do it, but it's a stretch for both. It means almost doubling their current ltds, which is a pretty high standard. For PS3 especially, it don't really have the critical mass in any region imo (unlike 360 in America) and systems that can't manage top of the heap tend not to have the late gen legs to really carry themselves to the sorts of figures PS3 would need to hit that benchmarket. There's also the issue of Kinect vs Move, the former being a certified mainstream hit and possible lifetime extender for 360, the latter being a relative non-starter and generally inconsequential to PS3.
