By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close
Pineapple on 25 December 2010
Edit Thread
Immortal said:
Pineapple said:
Immortal said:

Whoo-yeah! Now I feel like Kirbyciding someone, ;).

I wonder who's next on the potential 10m seller list by the way; JD2? It looks to have a better chance at it than DKCR, though they may both make it, :D.

I kind of doubt Just Dance 2 will make it. Its sales should mellow down a bit after christmas, and it's going to get a sequel at some point. I'd guess around 8 million seems more likely. 10 million is possible, but I'd consider it highly unlikely.

I'd say Wii Party is far, far more likely to reach 10 million. Donkey Kong Country Returns also has a chance of making it, assuming that it becomes bundled with the Wii (similarily to how Mario Kart Wii and New Super Mario Bros. Wii are) in the future.

I don't really see the Wii getting many more 10 million sellers. The future games simply have too much competition from the old ones (Mario Kart Wii, New Super Mario Bros. Wii, Wii Sports Resort, Wii Fit Plus).

Well, I expect it to have a 100k/week pace through next year (counting holidays). It has a far larger fanbase and has had even more time for word of mouth to spread. Word of mouth, when it's almost unanymously good can be very effective. I tell two friends, they tell two each and so on. I believe that that's gonna happen, and with this large base gained from the huge holidays, the effect will multiply.

Not as if my logic's never been wrong before though...

Wii Party, I'd say, is a shoe-in for 10m. DKCR, I think could make it, even without a bundle, because it has the NSMB base to delve into. Not as likely though, obviously.

I think that Wii has quite a few 10m sellers left, actually. Whilst JD2 prolly won't make it, JD3 will more likely than not do it. Also, so far, Nintendo has a track record of churning out 10m sellers almost every year on Wii. I think this should continue and, actually, pick up its pace by making the games hit lower amounts higher than 10 (early teens) rather than making a few huge titles that'll sell upwards of 20m. That already seems to be happening.

You'd think that the later in the generation a game is released, the more it will sell. It's not like that on the Wii or DS, or generally on long-legged consoles (as in, consoles that have games with long legs, not consoles that sell for a long time).

The reason for this is pretty much that the user habits of people are

Year 1 - Buy 4 games
Year 2 - Buy 3 games
Year 3 - Buy 2 games
Year 4  - Buy 1 game
Year 5 - Buy 0.5 games

This is an oversimplification, and I might even be quoting it slightly incorrectly. The Source is my source on this one.

Now, let's look at the Wii. (2007 is year 1). And yes, I'm aware that the software numbers for the years are a bit off, that's because I'm slightly misusing the data. The "Year 1" is from each person who buys it. I'm counting a person buying a Wii in November 2007 as having owned it a year by the start of 2008. That doesn't really mean anything for the main point of this, though.

Year 1 - 16 million buy 4 games = 64 million
Year 2 -  24 million buy 4 games 16 million buy 3 games = 144 million
Year 3 - 22 million buy 4 games 24 million buy 3 games 16 million buy 2 games = 192 million
Year 4 - 17 million buy 4 games 22 million buy 3 games 24 million buy 2 games 16 million buy one game = 198 million
Year 5 (Future, so a prediction) - 16 million buy 4 games 17 million buy 3 games 22 million buy 2 games 24 million buy one game 16 million buy half a game to one game = 190 million
Year 6 - 16 million buy 4 games 16 million buy 3 games 17 million buy 2 games 22 million buy one game 24 million buy half a game 16 million buy half a game = 188 million

You might wonder what the point of this is. The point is that the Wii software numbers are going to even out at roughly the levels they are now. We're not going to see the Wii sell more software next year.

The Wii has long legged games. This means that whichever games release in Year 5 are going to have to fight the games from year 3 and 4 for the sales.

In 2008, games had to fight against all of the newly released big-hitters of the year.

In 2009, the new games had to fight all of the newly released big-hitters of the year, but also Wii Fit and Mario Kart Wii.

In 2010, they had to fight all of the newly released big-hitters of the year, but also Wii Fit Plus, Just Dance, Wii Sports Resort and Mario Kart Wii.

In 2011, they'll have to fight all of the newly released big-hitters of the year, but also Wii Fit Plus, Mario Kart Wii, New Super Mario Bros. Wii, Just Dance 2, Donkey Kong Returns and Wii Sports Resort.

 

If you have 5 people fighting over 100 cakes, they'll each get 15-25 cakes. If you have 10 people fighting over 100 cakes, they'll each get 5-15 cakes. If you have 15 people fighting over 100 cakes, they'll each get 4-9 cakes. If you have 20 people fighting over 100 cakes, they'll each get 3-7 cakes.

That's  how the Wii is developing. Each year we'll see fewer and fewer mega hitters.

(PS: Some people have been upset that I sound so confident when I say stuff, like everything is the truth. It's just my expectations for the future, so apologies if I sound too much like I'm correct)