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So far it's Lost in Shadow, Mario Sports Mix and Conduit 2 as far as date confirmed exclusives and none of those are big.  Mario Sports should clear a million but the others will be lucky for a quarter of that.

I do think Nintendo wants to focus attention on 3DS this Spring but hopefully we'll get something more.  Frankly, If all they do is import The Last Story, Xenoblade, Dynamic Sword, Disaster:DoC and Another Code: R (and Fatal Frame 4?) I'll be quite happy for a long time.  

It's also completely possible they'll do a surprise anouncement of a couple more AA titles very early in the year, perhaps during the 3DS launch.