82-83m? Surely, you're joking. Wii is up YOY for this week and has deals far better than last year for the next two weeks. If our numbers for the past few weeks are correct, I'd be willing to bet that it'll undoubtedly hit 84.5m, with 86m as an outside possibility if it's undertracked and about 85-85.5m otherwise.
With about 19.5m for the year, the Wii will have declined about ~2m YOY, which, interestingly, is a lower drop than the year before, without a price cut. Whilst it would be ridiculous to expect the Wii, a console going into its fifth year with 85m households saturated already and very little chance of repurchase, to continue to reduce its declines forever, with a price cut to $150 and some decent software, keeping its declines steady is not at all out of the question. That would put Wii at about 102-103m by the end of the year.
In short, yes, I believe it will. I'd be rather disappointed if it didn't.
Also, if the Vitality Sensor or a console redesign of some sort drops and does well, add approximately 7-8m to my prediction, :P.
“These are my principles; if you don’t like them, I have others.” – Groucho Marx
