Darth Tigris on 20 December 2010
Considering the average weekly sales for the 360, Japanese developed games upcoming and a likely 3 holiday focus for Kinect, I went with 250K lifetime.
To be completely honest, though, without knowing more about upcoming software, its all just wild guessing at this point. Kojima could release something that's Kinect only and cause a phenomenon over there. Japanese gamers are extremely predictable at times and completely unpredictable at others.
Anyway, I say 250,000.
