Excellent analysis, and quite close to my guesses of 19 million PS3, 23 million 360s and 47 million Wii.... perhaps I shall lower my PS3 by 1 mil in light of your writing. [I still want to believe Nintendo will be more gutsy though, and like you said we have no way of knowing how high Wii could have been this year]
Any way we can have handheld predictions?... if not an analysis then pure numbers will suffice.
I have 39 million for PSP and 93 million for DS at the moment.
Edit. my first sentence mirrored Rols too much.
and @Rol, production wise doubling is perfectly reasonable, but surely Sony didn't produce that many in year 1 because 2/3 of it was Japan only.