i remember the previous thread that you made toastboy in which i said something along the lines of "it's too early to tell, i want to see the sales after the holiday is over". now while i'm not particularly happy that kinect is selling so well with the current line-up of software, i must admit kinect's future looks bright.
it's not a guarentee quite yet but i'd put my money on 20 M kinects being sold eventually.