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err, 20 million? So you expect it to sell nearly half the userbase of the 360? Exactly what kind of software is going to push 20 million Kinects at $150 a piece ($300 if you include those who don't have a 360)? CERTAINLY not the software out for it now.

I predict sales will fall like a rock after the holiday season. There are no games out now or in the forseeable future that shows otherwise.