I think Japanese developers will jump on sooner as Wii is obviously dominating Japan. Also they've seen the success of the DS moreso than anywhere else. Problem is they really struggle against Nintendo in Japan, even Capcom hasn't done too great in Japan. Yes, M&S is doing well but it's published by Nintendo in Japan. Irregardless, I think it'll be too expensive for them to develop for PS3 with it's high costs and low user base so it'll be Wii or die.
Western developers still don't get it. They're starting to see some success with the DS, but they'll cling to making more of the same for the same market they are use to (PS3/360) at least until it just becomes too financially unsavoury to do so. Flops on HD systems are terribly expensive and hits are terribly expensive to make so for smaller - mid sized developers they may ultimately end up with no choice but to go Wii as they can't afford to continue to compete with higher budget games (Timeshift or Blacksite 51 vs Cod4 & Halo 3 for example).
The big guys will continue to put half-hearted attempts or 'casual' games to the Wii until they see other companies making more profit off Wii games than their getting off HD games. Then they'll follow the lead others have set but do it better as their financial might and know-how allows.
So in short, yeah, another 1-2+ years.
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