Which console will sell more in 2008, PS3 or 360?

[natureman3]

Considering the facts :
- Some BIG third party multi support games to be released on 360/pS3 will look identical on ps3 and 360 (ex : DMC4, Burnout Paradise) => negates 2007 advantage of 360 having the best version of games.
- Some really BIG exclusives games are gonna show up on the ps3 : MGS4, LittleBigPlanet, Killzone2, White Knight Chronicle and they could all wipe the floor in their respective genres.
- 360 is virtually dead in Japan, and after Lost Odyssey, it will be one of (if not THE) the last big exclusive targeted at japanse gamers.
- 360 is struggling in Europe. Decent show but struggling.
- ps3 is weak in America but slowly gains some ground.
- 360 still has a huge advantage on price and ps3 will plateau soon without another price drop.
- Blu-ray vs DVD has reached a stalemate until something big happens (Blu-rau drives under $200 or Warner going exclusive one way or the other).

I make the following hypothesis (just add the - or + to see the oucome: a - means 360 outsold by ps3, a +means the opposite. It correspond to 25k units weekly.
* Warner goes HDDVD Exclusive : ++
* Warner stays neutral : -
* Warner goes blu-ray exclusive : ---
* 360 / ps3 average prices accross 2008 : $299/$399 : -
* 360 / ps3 average prices accross 2008 : $199/$349 : +++
* 360 / ps3 average prices accross 2008 : $199/$299 : +
* 360 / ps3 average prices accross 2008 : $199/$249 : ---
* MGS4 scores less than 90% on metacritic (flawed gem): +
* MGS4 scores more than 95% on metacritic (flgship game) : -
* PSN matches Live as for features : -
* Live goes for free : +

You see, for me it depends not much on games quality (the playing field is average considering the mass of third party multiplat games.
It depends much more on price strategy and the outcome of the HD format war.