I have to agree with a lot of your points, especially the 2012 Wii 2 release. Many, including you and I, believe with our gut Nintendo will announce a successor to the Wii in 2011.
I disagree vehemently with the notion that Nintendo can even threaten the core base of the 360 or PS3 for a multitude of reasons:
1. Gamers who exclusively PS3 or 360 value online gameplay (FPS mostly), have some if not extensive PC gaming experience, prefer non-linear and/or open world sand box experiences for non FPS games, and place a premium on graphics.
2. Nintendo views multi-player as a living room experience amongst family and friends, has Mario and other franchises which trump any and all Sony and Microsoft franchises leaving them reluctant to depend on anyone, much less a 3rd party, to advise them on how to create a massively selling game, and prefer consoles with less graphic capabilities in order to win the price war with Sony...and Microsoft to a lesser extent.
I could definitely be wrong in my assumptions, but if you take Castlevania: Lords of the Shadow and Enslaved as an example of Japanese 3rd party trying to crack into the Western market, then what you really see is they don't have a clue to what Western gamers value. Yes they get it right on the graphics part, but they miss out on online gameplay, a game created with no Japanese audience in mind, and non-linear gameplay.
If it is not Square Enix, a Street Fighter game, or a game from Kojima, or an excellent FPS like Vanquish, the West could care less about games from Japanese 3rd party devs.
Nintendo has been catering to their core market with Mario, Zelda, Metroid and Donkey Kong games, yet for some reason you have a game like Black Ops setting sales records in selling 7 million in 2 days. What this tells us is that Nintendo cannot rely solely on creating the best 1st party games to take away from Microsoft and Sony. They need 3rd party developers, but as I illuminated above Japanese 3rd party devs, this generation, have failed to make a dent in the Western market unless it is a: 1. Square Enix game, 2. Street Fighter game, 3. Kojima game, or 4. An excellent FPS like Vanquish.
