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Soriku said:
After a few weeks now, it's obvious that the 360 keeps losing market share to the Wii and PS3. Wii and PS3 have been gaining, 360 slowly losing.

I wonder if this'll change?

Currently it's:

Wii - 43.9%
360 - 36%
PS3 - 20.1%

Wii will continue to gain market share, but what of the battle between the PS3 and 360?

If you look at the Wii since launch, it actually sold more than the 360 and PS3 combined. Now that Wii production levels have increased substantially (by a fact of 2 over the same time last year) I suspect the Wii will continue to outsell them combined by an even wider margin.

As the Wii approaches 50% market share, the 360 and PS3 would converge at 25% market share if they reached the same installed base size. This would be a hell of a lot of moving for the PS3 -- so as you can see, it will take a lot for the PS3 to reach 25% market share.

It's really not that strange Microsoft is losing marketshare, as they started out with 100%. But I expect Microsoft to fall below 30% at the end of the year, which won't be pretty.

That is all but certain.  When the Wii reaches 50% market share and if the PS3 continues to outsell the 360, the 360 will be well below 30% market share.  Microsoft's saving grace right now as their one-year head start.  I believe that will be almost completely squandered in 2009.