Gran Turismo 5 will fail to sell...

[Michael-5]

TheFogOfWar said:

Michael-5 said:

Yea I noticed that one. It really sucks how VGChartz doesn't track digital distrubution sales. MS and Sony should put out Digital sales once in a while. I mean GT5P should be at 5 million, not 4, and who knows how well every other game sells over PSN and XBL. This would put Alan Wake above 1 million.

I think MS is smart for bundling Forza with current 360's. It takes away some of the edge Sony has with GT5 in Americas, as GT5 is one ofthe strongest selling points for PS3 this fall.

Still, I think ratings affect sales, GT5 will sell well, but not as well as prior installments.

Also, assuming GT5 doesn't sell as well as prior GT's in Americas, do you think this will give Forza 4/Kinect potential to open up sales in the Americas region? Personally I think MS really wants to grow this brand, and potentially I see a split. Forza in Americas, GT in EMEAA, and if thats the case Forza 4 could break 5 million sales. Whats your take CGI?

Lucky we got PD numbers so we know its at 5million.

I think if MS was smart they would have given Forza a $100 million push last year in Europe to truely steal GT sales, i don't think a bundle will take sales.  A lot of peopel buy bundles just casue its a good value not becasue they are racing game fans.

Sure a 6 or 5 out of 10 rating would have affected sales, but a 8/10 with "best sim" "best this that" in the review not so much. 

Focusing on NA while letting GT have Europe would be plain illogical.  MS support for Forza is slacking and has been since the beginning, they never truely dared to go right after GT.  Its like they accepted second place from the get go.  They have had 3 games to push and grow the franchise and challange Sonys sales.  But all they have done is focus on shooters. 

Yea, but PD numbers only tell us true GT sales including shipped units (hence the difference in GT4 sales between VGC and PD). What about all the other franchises available over XBL and PSN? I mean Halo 3 is available over XBL, I bet it's sales are over 12 million including digital distributions, maybe even 13 million. Forza 2 is also probably over 5 million as it is, if it benefited the same from DD as GT5P. If GT5P has a 25% boost due to DD, then how much does every other game have?

I disagree about a marketing push last year in EMEAA, A lot of people were waiting on GT5, Forza could never steal the show, especially since GT3 and GT4 were such amazing games. However a marketing push in 2011 for Forza 4/Kinect may be wise because most reviewers agree Forza 3 is better then GT5. Now potentially the franchise can build a brand name.

The reason why I proposed an Americas brand association instead of worldwide is because even though GT5 got only modest reviews, most EMEAA regions will still stick with GT. One bad game won't ruin the franchise for them. However in Americas, with the strong domestic associations, Forza would need less encouragement to steal brand association here. However EMEAA have always been a more car enthusiastic nation. Mainly because so many different countries develop cars there, there is a lot more competition, where in North America, it's just US brand vs US brand.

Forza is slacking? What are you talking about Forza 3 got better reviews then GT5, how is that slacking? I'm not saying MS should focus the Forza brand on Americas, I am saying Forza could more easily take brand association there. Of course Turn 10 and MS would want Forza to be the brand name simulator worldwide, but how likely do you think Japan will switch to a foreign branded console for their sim? EMEAA too would be difficult, one game isn't enough to ruin a franchise, and GT has been around for over a decade, integrating itself to the car cultue there., However in Americas there is a strong association with domestic products. This is why Chrysler still manages to stay afloat dispite extremly low quality cars, and a lack of new products, and this is why Ford manages to be the best selling car manufacturer in the USA despite better products from Toyota, Honda, and Nissan.

So what I'm proposing is that Forza 4 steals the American audience for Simulator sales, and potentially sells over 5 million units total, excluding bundled and digital distribution sales. Strong Americas sales, modest EMEAA sales, and small Japan sales.

This could potentially hurt GT5/6 sales, but not by much because Americas has never been a strong region for GT sales.