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I think that Reach will have long-tail sales, where Black Ops will likely trail off when the next CoD is released. Halo3 continued to sell well during CoD4 and 5, and probably could have sold more if it weren't for ODST packaging the most popular Halo3 game-modes. MS will likely bundle Reach at some stage.

As for MS' exclusive strategy, they seem to be focussing on titles which make sell. And making the 360 appear to be the "default" system for popular third-party titles would likely shift some hardware for new buyers.

MS does publish quite a lot of XBLA exclusive games which are very good, I think MS and everyone is making a lot of money right now on software, which is the major point of a business.