Mummelmann said:
atma998 said:
Mummelmann said:
atma998 said:
Mummelmann said:
atma998 said:
CGI-Quality said:
atma998 said:
lol
ok so the game will sell as much in 2012 than in 2011? How come? And it will sell more in its second and 3rd year than CoD:MW2? Come on... this isnt serious.
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How did you draw that conclusion?
In 2010, it'll sell 4 million = 4 million.
In 2011, it'll sell 3 million = 7 million.
In 2012, it'll sell 2 million (give or take) = 9 million
In 2013, it'll sell 1 million (give or take) = 10 million.
Now, how did your maths deceive you? And............. CoD will have a larger drop off due to annual releases (unlike GT5, which likely be the only full GT on the system).
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Well a drop of only 1 million between 2011 and 2012 sounds like wishful thinking to me, as much as thinking it will outsell CoD:MW2 second and 3rd year. And what makes you think Sony won't release a GT6 this gen? PR talks?
Reality is that CoD is far more popular than GT as a franchise so there is no chance GT5 will outsell its second year, especially when we are looking at racing sim games legs.
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GT games have the craziest legs I've ever seen, GT3 was in the Norwegian top 20 for three years and top ten for almost two years running. Games like Modern Warfare 2 are heavily frontloaded and pre-ordered with their 500 million dollar advertising budgets and this series gets a new game every single year (that's why they have two studios working on the series, so they output one game every single year). I would also suggest to wait before more racing sims are released on the PS3 to judge how they do, since there aren't exactly a whole lot of them available (In fact; there are only two and one isn't even a full game but more of a demo/trial version). As far as I can see, the only shooters that have outsold GT5:P are three Call of Duty game so your terrific logic of Shooters>>>>>>>>>>>>>Racing Sims is flawed at best and plain silly cherrypicking at worst.
Mario Kart has outsold everything this side of wheat bread, this must surely mean as a rule of thumb that Gokart Games>>>>>>>>>>>All Other Games, always. Wii Fit sitting at 20 million means Fitness Games>>>>>>>>>>>All Other Games Besides Gokart Games. See how this becomes rather silly when the scope is broadened somewhat?
I'm not saying your lifetime prediction is impossible, I'm saying that it is unlikely and it would seem that you have a very poor grasp of how game sales truly work, its not simply black and white.
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So based on your logic there is no genre more popular than other. Shooter, racing sim, 2D platformer, 3D platformer, RPG, puzzle game and kart games are all equally popular.
We are trying to analyze the sales trend and we are basing our predictions with past sales of other games in the same genre. I don't see what is wrong in my pedictions considering userbase, competition, most popular franchise sales on PS3, racing sim genre this gen, launch sales of GT5, etc. But indeed it's more easy to just deny what others are predicting without taking all that into consideration and taking instead a norwegian chart of a past GT released on PS2...
Unlike you, I have explained my prediction and I think it's a very reasonnable one. I know there is a lot of PS3 fans here that doesnt want to admit it, so in the end I will repeat what I said in my first post:
It will takes more than a year before people predicting 10M (and more) sales may admit the true potential of this game.
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Talk about making strawmen galore. I see you still debate on the same level as before, I won't go down this road again. I made my points perfectly clear and showed how your thinking was less than optimal, to say the least and would be hard pressed to make it any more clear. Your whole premise is that CoD has sold a lot, ergo shooters are bigger than racing sims (which have only just now made their appearance). CoD is unique, as is GT and they are equally big and influental in their respective genres. People won't admit you prediction is reasonable because they genuinely don't think it is and because the thought process behind it is highly simplified and not very reflected.
PS: I was never one of those who thought GT5 will sell 10 million. I still don't. I also find it funny that you would assume that the Norwegian video game market operates entirely differently from other countries and regions since the data was apparently utterly useless and this speaks volumes of your dedication to drive your points home with any and all means necessary. Like I said; I won't go down this road again, have fun.
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LOL
For a guy who don't want to ''go down this road again'' you put a lot of efforts trying to counter my arguments. Next time if you want to be taken seriously try to bring better facts to back up your position instead of taking a game released 10 years ago without any real competition on a console that reached a userbase of 135 million...
Also we're still waiting for YOUR prediction. I know it's more easy to criticize predictions from other people without making (or having the guts to make) your own. But I know you won't...
Have a good night.
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My prediction; 9 million with a lot of bundling, roughly 55% of total sales from the EMEAA region. Reasoning; good opening, holiday launch, Black Friday helps push initial sales in it's slowest region (Americas) and last and most importantly; GT legs. If GT5:P proved anything, it is that GT is still very much a franchise to be reckoned with and there is a big demand for realistic racing on consoles like before. My 9 million prediction has been posted several in different threads over the past year or so, you can dig through my post history if you want. You will also find that I have always dobted this title's ability to cross the 10 million mark and I still find this highly unlikely. By the way, who are the "we" in "we're still waiting for YOUR prediction"? I can't seem to see anyone else in here disagreeing with me in my overall points, to be honest and I'm pretty sure the older members here all know my thoughts and feelings towards this game and its potential sales. I can also openly admit that I really don't care all that much if you take me seriously, most users in here do and I don't think you should critique my facts when your reasoing is based on; one multiplat shooter franchise sells a whole lot = shooters sell better than racers as a rule and simulation racing won't sell well. CoD is the only shooter franchise that has sold more than GT5:P, GT5's first week sales alone will surpass practically every single shooter ever released on a PS console except CoD games (like I said; CoD and GT are both unique to their respective genre).
There you go, have a good night yourself.
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