| XCosMarX said: @johnlucas I think in that single post you wrote more then a person that almost has 9000 posts XD |
Whew! And that wasn't even one of my longest ones! Boy I'm windy! 
As for my forum friend Erik Aston I'll reply to your assessments on my predictions.
*Wii will see 60 million sold worldwide by the end of 2008.
We're both certainly optimistic about Nintendo's ability to increase that much is for sure. Some don't think they could even reach the 50 million you proposed with the 30 million increase.
I have felt that Nintendo has been kicking themselves for a while now for not taking advantage of all the goodwill thrown their way to capture buyers. I think they were semi-cautious for the 1st half of 2007 then realized just how strong the demand was and have been working on empowering the increase ever since then. But the increases got ate up by the holiday demand. In the meantime, production's in the developing phase but I think sometime in 2008 with all these big games coming out they are going to make more sure the units are in people's hands to encourage more gamesales with that larger base.
You say 30 million, I say 40 million. And the reason I say that is Nintendo will overcompensate for all this ongoing missed opportunity in 2007. I'm sure while they are more than satisfied with the sales they received part of them is sort of ruing how they couldn't get the numbers up to take better advantage of the influx. I know they want that image we see so much from DS & Wii with families and whole generations playing together to come true and to do that units will have to be made in much greater volume.
The crazy part is whether you call 50 million total in 2008 or 60 million total, that STILL will not be enough to satisfy demand. This year demand will also be coming from the 360 & PS3 camps, those who may buy Wii as their "second console". So it just adds onto the problem. Nintendo will dumbfounded at its own success this year.
*Wii Fit's opening week will outsell Halo 3 opening week worldwide when tallied together (still waiting on this to redeem my failed Japan stipulation).
Shooters are a saturated genre filled with constant one-upmanship. Microsoft needs to hype launches like Halo and Gears of War to maximize software sales, because if they rely on a long tail for the bulk of sales, better shooters will inevitably come along and eat up their potential sales.
After a mega launch like this, public perception around the product can take a hit. It feels like a flash-in-the-pan, "over-hyped;" some non-fans get swept up in the hype and turn into bad WOM; if something perceived as a better product comes along quickly, like CoD4, it can damage the brand; and the tail of the product will be more influenced by seasonal trends, thus MS pushing Halo 3 into September to capitalize on Xmas more.
A game like Brain Age, Nintendogs, Guitar Hero, Wii Sports or Wii Fit is looking to build up a new genre from scratch. They have no built in audience, expectations, and the public likely doesn't even understand the product yet. These games need slower roll-outs to find their audience.
Satoru Iwata said something about how no one would believe Nintendo's expectations for Wii Fit if they announced them, just like no one would believe they expected 20 million sales from the Brain Age brand in 2005. Companies pushing for a mega launch talk about "the biggest entertainment debut ever." Nintendo never pushes for the debut, they want the games that will still be selling millions of copies years later, and trying to forcefeed the public something they don't yet understand is not the way to do that.
Well my optimism may border on delusion with the logistics of this prediction but I will say this. Folks not "in the know" about videogaming news have heard about Wii Fit and are anxiously awaiting it. They may not know exactly when it's supposed to come out but they are "waiting for that Wii Fit".
I expect mainstream media to do all the free advertising for this one 'cause it's gonna change the whole dadgum industry. This game will put Nintendo into their 2nd phase for transforming the business to work to their benefit. Like I have said many times from the Larval Stage we're in now to the Pupa Stage, the cocoon. And that caterpillar will begin turning into a butterfly in this period. I overestimated their test market Japan. It COULD have sold it if they made as much but with all the production problems just making Wii already I overshot that stipulation.
I DO see them being able to put out a better selection for a healthy American and European/etc. market who have more Wiis than Japan does when all counted together. I believe that with holiday pressure off of them they will have a broader supply that will make my prediction come true. I always wanted to say worldwide anyway but the launch was staggered so I had to work with what I had. While they are still trying to get Wiis built they won't have to adjust so harshly like for the holidays to make sure there's a healthy supply of Wii Fit for its debuts. People want this game and it WILL be a hit. Nintendo could the most minimal advertising for this and make this big.
But you're right. Nintendo DOES usually push AFTER the launch than before. Still I think they'll have a decent amount for Wii Fit's launch which still hasn't been made official. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong but it came to me in a vision & I had to put it down. Frenzy WILL accompany this herald game.
*Resident Evil 5 will see itself on the Wii.
*Metal Gear Solid 4 will NOT go to the PS3 (a prediction possibly seen as my craziest ever even past my Wii Fit one).
One thing that will happen is that games that should have been major 5 million + sellers will fail to sell that much on PS3, while games no one would expect to be major hits sell 5 million + on Wii. Another thing that will happen is smaller third parties will thrive with smaller, innovative 500K-1M sellers moreso than on PS2. We've seen that already with DS and Wii with games like Trauma Center and Prof. Layton. The change won't all come through OMG moments like Monster Hunter being cancelled for PS3 and brought to Wii.
These kinds of predictions are why I got kicked out of the forum at N-Philes.com. 
PS3 has improved with the price cuts but we have see if that rate is sustainable in the next few months. I honestly see a jackmove coming. Microsoft's aggressiveness is what I think will be a catalyst for the jump of MGS4 on the PS3. XBox 360 will do their damndest to ruin PS3 in the territories they can (this does not include Japan which belong to neither of them right now anyway). I think MS will soil PS3's rep so bad that developers will wonder if it wouldn't be better to try out other alternatives. Plus I think the PS3 while making some improvements have not rectified the major obstacle to their progress: making potential buyers prefer them over 360. I think after holiday euphoria has worn off PS3 will find itself back into that familiar position we've seen all year making them weak to 360's tactics. With Wii's power growing shrinking the power of both competitors the fight will become desperate between Sony & MS. And in the end I see MGS4 being pulled suddenly as the money-conscious companies (the big losses) take another look at their strategies.
I mentioned the RE4 test on Wii here many times. There was absolutely no reason to rerelease this game for Wii other than Capcom testing out the market for Wii long term. The test passed & Wii got Umbrella Chronicles. RE5 is destined for Wii there's no doubt.
*XBox 360 will increase aggressiveness (by EVERY means necessary: price drops, money lures, market hype, etc.) towards PS3 to fight for an overall #2 position in the marketplace (this continues one of my oldest visions about 360's aggressiveness to PS3 to fight against being an outsider in the gamesmarket).
I think I covered this one in the last point. Yep, MS's aggressiveness may sabotage them but they have no choice really. They are very strong in one major region but it's not enough alone to hold off Sony even if Sony's weaker than they should have been. MS & the XBox 360 are the outsiders in the gaming business. It's all about getting on the inside.
*Wii's 2008 will make Wii's 2006/2007 look like child's play (get ready for insane production & sales numbers).
Cool. Nice to see we're in total agreement on this point as well.
*Related to last point: Nintendo's market dominance and sister sector cooperation (handheld and home consoles) which I call the WiiDS Phenomenon will also begin showing itself in 2008. Nintendo will certainly become not only a plurality of the market (not just the 45% discussed in this thread: http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=13301) but a MAJORITY of the market (over 50%). Eventually a vast majority (think in the ranges of 67%, 75% to see a Pac-Man on the pie chart) as the years roll on.
Cool. We see more eye to eye than we don't. We definitely see the surge of Nintendo coming in 2008. The 2nd Coming of the NES is on its way. Thank goodness for you stamping out that wishful thinking called the "three way tie". It would be nice if everybody got a nice parcel of the market but there's always a dominator in real life. "All three will win" just is not reality as much as we would like it to be.
John Lucas
Words from the Official VGChartz Idiot
WE ARE THE NATION...OF DOMINATION!
