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Sqrl...you rock.
Amazing write-up and I think you've really hit the head with this one.

I wonder if there are still some in the stockpile reserves...for the release of three hotly anticipated games: Wii Fit, Mario Kart, and Smash Bros. Or maybe the 1.8 million a month is satisfactory to meet demand.

Also....how much does Nintendo have to stockpile if they are going to try to roll out new colors? Wouldn't they have to wait until they had at least 1-2 million of the new color before they could introduce them to the market? There's 1-2 million that they would be producing yet not selling. This would have to be offset by a stock reserve to sustain the sales.