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daveJ said:

But if theres a wiiHD next year, that will effectively kill wii's sales. It perhaps wont even sell 100million.

Oi? Ive heard that before, oh right Ive been saying that before in these forums. thats why the wii is not guaranteed to win this generation since the xbox360 ps3 still have a few more years left in them.

Wii's already won the generation.  Kinect and Move are proof positive of that, it's already fundamentally changed the industry in the way only a market leader can.

And Wii can probably expect to move around ~25-30% of it's total sales after it's successor comes out.  That's how much hugely successful systems tend to move at that point (NES, SNES, PS, GBA), the only one to really buck that trend was PS2 (it did more), and that can probably be attributed (in part) to PS3 flopping so hard out the gates.  100m is probably the absolute minimum we can expect for Wii's lifetime sales, it's almost guaranteed at this point.