I don't think BluRay *winning* will have a huge impact - MS could easily bring out a BluRay player for the 360.
But BluRay losing would have a huge impact, as that may make the PS3 feel sort of obsolete.
...
A key sticking point for me is still the price of the discs. I now own around 50 DVDs, and bought a few over Xmas. Pretty much every movie I bought recently came in around $10AU (3 for $25, etc..).
JB HiFi now stock HD-DVD + BluRay movies. No one really looks at them - a tiny corner of the store. A HD-DVD move costs around $40 here - if it wasn't for the free offers, I wouldn't even consider them.
If I had a HD-DVD/BluRay player, I would buy a couple of movies - just for the tech/example. But there is no way I would switch from primarily buying DVDs - there just isn't a point. The ratio might end up 10:1, or 6:1 or something.
Having a upsampling DVD player + nice HD (50'') set - my "old" DVDs still look pretty damned good on it. The difference isn't worth $30 / movie to me - not even close.
Gesta Non Verba
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