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Longer term sucess for Kinect will depend on how much Kinect is seen by people as being more of a Wii than the Wii itself.  Microsoft is pushing "You are the controller" angle a bunch here.  This is more of a Wii than the Wii itself.  Looks like Sony is pushing the motion control for the core, more hardcore.  Nintendo is getting hit on the upper and lower end here.  Again, it is still early, so wait and see here.

As far as it appearing to be a "no brainer" regarding Kinect outselling Move, one can't say that for a multitude of reasons.