PAL Charts - Week 45

[binary solo]

donsterydo2 said:

I update my prediction: KA should equal 3x KS numbers so in EMEA should sell at least 200k of Kinects.

I reckon a 1/3 attach rate for Kinect Sports sounds about right. Kinect Sports looks to be selling < JD2. JD2 sold 90K (whole of EMEAA)  last week, which was 81% of it's previous week. Figure this week will again be ~81% of last week for JD2 = 73K (JD2 went down even though Wii HW went up, hence JD2 should continue to trend downwards for a little while yet). Kinect Sports expected to be <73K for whole of EMEAA. Probably figure about 70K as an upper estimate.

70K Kinect Sports x 3 = 210K Kinect Adventures and hence Kinect.

Now for the 360 HW boost. In Americas 479K Kinects sold --> ~92K HW boost (Kinect plus seasonal lift of course) = 19% of Kinects sold. 19% of 210K = 40K. So expect a 40-50K boost for 360 in EMEAA. With PS3 likely to be a bit flat this week, in anticipation of GT5 next week, 360 could be > PS3 in EMEAA. However that'll probably be a 1 week effect in EMEAA and I expect PS3 will easily remain in 2nd place through the rest of the holidays in EMEAA. PS3 could take top spot if we are vastly underestimating the number of GT fans that have yet to make the transition from PS2 to PS3 (or who went 360/Wii until GT5 comes out).

Who takes 2nd and who takes 3rd WW in the Holidays will come down to whether America gap in favour of 360 > EMEAA Japan gap in favour of PS3. That is assuming Wii's solid rise back to respectability continues and puts it on top, which is not a certainty at this stage, though looking pretty likely given Kinect's biggest HW boost didn't put 360 that much beyond Wii's reach.

Nintendomination for 2010 incoming.