Initial Kinect Sales!!!!

[heruamon]

Reasonable said:

heruamon said:

 

 

On the general premise of calling Kinect’s launch a new console launch, I agree with some of your points, but it’s far more than just a peripheral.  I will use a term from my background…Flights, which basically means a fundamental shift in the concepts of operation that it warrants a new nomenclature to differential the current model from the previous versions.  While the while (2) Flights share a high percent of similar components, the latest Flight has capabilities that are not possible by the previous configuration. 

 

So, that is to say the Kinect represents a paradigm shift in Xbox 360’s original concept of operations, which was to be a console that functionally in its inception was a gaming device integrally linked to XBL as the “core driver” of the of platform.  In the implementation of Kinect, that “core driver” has shifted to full body motion control, and while it still has all of the  other functionality, this new avenue present an alternate path for extending the lifecycle of the console.  Personally, I believe Kinect will add an additional 1-2 years on the console, and without a doubt, will probably add another year on when M$ plans to launch a new console.  I had originally thought, 2012, but I’m starting to doubt that…but of course, I’m superstitious, and I can’t imagine them launch a new console in 2013. 

 

Before the announcement of Kinect, I thought we would see 55-60 million Xbox 360s LTD, but I’m starting to think we are going to see 65-75 consoles, and that makes a HUGE difference, in the ROI for the bottomline.  Microsoft’s strong suit is that it is a software company, and anything that can further push console gaming in that framework is probably where they want things to go.  So, just like with the launch of Win 7 to developers, the impact to their bottomline development cost was almost nill, and perhaps in several cases, it even reduced it.  I think we could possibly see the same trend for console games.  This makes developers far more likely to make that graceful shift from one console to the next, and just like on computers, they will be able to develop a software title for the 360, but then easily port it to the new platform at very little cost.  Anyway, that’s my long boring spiel to say that Kinect represents far more than just a peripheral, and while calling it a console launch is too strong a choice of words, it certainly is closer to truth, than calling it a peripheral.

I kind of agree - but the deal breaker for me is that it's not mandatory.  When I thought about it I understood why we saw the articles a while back about the senior Xbox guy who said it had to be mandatory.  I do see that the fact it changes the interface, etc. makes it more than a peripheral, but... it's optional.  MS haven't made it the interface, more of an optional if you want to try this.  And therefore in overall concept the way they are selling it is closer to a peripheral.

Obviously the challenge for MS is that to go mandatory would split the install base.  But, that's the issue with launching it like an add-on peripheral rather than, as Nintendo did with the Wii, commiting fully to a different input interface and approach.

I feel MS are trying to play clever with the device, using it both as a peripheral to get into motion controls/casual but also as a test bed for going with it fully next time.

If MS allowed people to use 360s without it, but from this point on put Kinect in ever 360 bundle - i.e. all new owners would get it, then I'd see it as a console re-launch.  But right now MS are definately sitting on the fence, going 100% with the positioning with their marketing but not 100% in reality.

Note: hopefully my last posts clarify for the other couple of replys the disparity in my seeing the initial sales and launch as a great success for Kinect as a peripheral bringing motion control gaming but I'm not buying the console re-lauch fully due to the mixed approach and signs that more standalone Kinect's are selling than bundles going by the figures here.

Aaaah…but in a stealth way, Kinect is NOT optional.  The whole thing of it is that if you, the consumer, makes the choice to experience motion control, either on the dashboard, or in games, you must commit to Kinect.  If the Kinect gave you choice of how you wanted to control the game, I’d agree with the non-mandatory statement, but I don’t think we will see many dual control titles.  If you don’t buy into the full motion hype, then it is no different from those who did for the Wii, but if you do, then you MUST have Kinect.  Anyway, maybe it is splitting hairs, but I think M$ is going to hold a lot of developer’s feet to the fire on providing full body control, which will make for many games to be exclusives to Kinect.  You will of course have many who won’t, like EA Active 2 or Children of Eden (Both of which looks to be FAR more interesting with Kinect/Move, then without them), but chances are, M$ will have more exclusive titles thru Kinect, then it could have ever had without it, and that is one of the strongest reasons to push this closer to a console launch, than a peripheral.