Initial Kinect Sales!!!!

[Reasonable]

Seece said:

Reasonable said:

I guess I'll have to join the flame target list!  Those numbers are a good opening as a peripherial for sure, but less than I was expecting based on MS own statements and raising of their targets.  With the push in US and the hype I was expecting a bigger initial purchase level than that,

But... it is expensive and the holiday's are coming so these numbers might be the beginning of a sustained period of strong selling, which would then see MS be on target.

Also... initial Move estimates turned out to be low so it may be Kinect is also a bit low.

So, a very good launch as a peripheral, but not looking like a new console launch yet - saleswise vs marketing - for me.  Likewise the actual purchased games are decent, but nothing amazing in their own right.  But maybe I actually took MS too much at their word as to the initial impact Kinect would have.

Anyway, like Move I'm going to treat the numbers with a grain of salt until more sources emerge and I see how the site settles on a final estimates.

If it "sustained" these sales it'd hit 5 million in America alone by the end of the year!

"not looking like a new console launch yet" you need to go back and look at console launch's, they never that high. This has beat PS3 and 360 and will be just under par with Wii.

Actually I need to explain how I'm looking at it.  But I'll be brief as I've changed my mind thinking on it more, so stick with me.

Now first, what does it mean for Kinect to be a new console?  Sure, it sounds like great marketing spin, but what does it mean?

Personally, the way I considered it initially - and when I posted - is that it's about the Kinect as a new interface way to play with a 360 and about owners who buy a 360 wtih Kinect and primarily for Kinect.  Kinect on its own can't be a console as it needs a 360 to work at all was my view but Kinect as an existing owner for some party fun hardly makes it a new console either.

Therefore, looking at the numbers my view is (or was, but we'll come to that in a moment) that whatever percentage of the sales are standalone Kinect's to existing owners should be considerd a peripheral sale while only new bundles to customers who will only know 360 with Kinect would only count as a Kinect as console sale.

Therefore, I was considering that only a subset, probably less than half the indicated numbers, could count as a genuine new customer/console sale.  Hence, while demand of Kinect on its own (i.e. as a peripheral) has been high, demand for Kinect/360 combo from scratch seems to be less so.

But...

I've decided the whole Kinect is a new console thing is currently bollocks and marketing speak and the Kinect is in fact a new peripheral or at best a partial beta for a new console that will no doubt be the next Xbox.

Why?

1 - Kinect is optional in every way.  But, it requires a 360 and can't be used on its own.  Therefore, its a peripheral unless MS make in mandatory - i.e. you have to use Kinect as the interface.  An optional device you don't need to operate the interface or play games is a peripheral, not a console.  At this point if Kinect is a console then so is Move - and now that I've thought further on it I'm not buying that

2 - Kinect isn't fully functionally as an interface yet.  It only operates a partial element of the interface and the voice commands don't cover all inputs.  Therefore, currently it is at best a beta interface that only a subset of the 360 install base currently has.

So unless something convinces me otherwise, my view is Kinect has had a very good start as a new peripheral for the 360 with strong initial demand.

Sales of the initial titles are promising too, and now it's all about how broad adoption of the new peripheral grows and how well its supported.

Any talk of Kinect/Console I've now decided it just marketing spin that makes it sound like more than it currently is or can sensibly be judged to be - unless we split the install base into csomething like classic 360 and Kinect 360 owners.

So, hopefully that's clearer.