| Reasonable said: I guess I'll have to join the flame target list! Those numbers are a good opening as a peripherial for sure, but less than I was expecting based on MS own statements and raising of their targets. With the push in US and the hype I was expecting a bigger initial purchase level than that, But... it is expensive and the holiday's are coming so these numbers might be the beginning of a sustained period of strong selling, which would then see MS be on target. Also... initial Move estimates turned out to be low so it may be Kinect is also a bit low. So, a very good launch as a peripheral, but not looking like a new console launch yet - saleswise vs marketing - for me. Likewise the actual purchased games are decent, but nothing amazing in their own right. But maybe I actually took MS too much at their word as to the initial impact Kinect would have. Anyway, like Move I'm going to treat the numbers with a grain of salt until more sources emerge and I see how the site settles on a final estimates. |
Greenburg seems to think the initial VGC estimates are low. I'm assuming he has the actual production and shipping numbers.
Initial stock of standalone Kinect sensors appears to be near 100% sell through based upon the lack of stock among most retailers, online or otherwise. I just assumed it was around 500k for the initial NA shipments based upon the preliminary sales figures.
There probably won't be reliable data to accurately gauge the Kinect launch for at least another two weeks as we roll into the holiday season.
In the meantime, it's not the worst indicator to gauge demand by checking the premium Kinect kits are going for on Ebay, which generally has a direct correlation to the stock (or lack there of) available through online and local retail outlets. Currently it's around $190.
MS undoubtedly has a shipping and production strategy based upon their estimates for Kinect. One of two extremes would be either Kinect stays the "hot item" through the holidays and consistently sells out as new shipments arrive, or demand has been overestimated and the secondary "flip" market dries up as ample stock remains available at retail.
Consistent stock is not necessarily a poor indicator of demand either. There is always the chance that MS completely nailed their estimates and pegged production very close to demand. On the other hand, if we consistently see pyramids of Kinect inventory at retail outlets, that's probably not the best indicator.
