Kinect success may take a LONG time to happen and the peripheral may have an average/good start but huge legs like Wiifit !
The initial effect have to be relativised. Because kinect may not be so appealing to casual RIGHT NOW (because it is too news), the first buyers will be Xbox360 userbase (the ones hyped by internet for example). As I was saying some posts ago, seducing the 360 userbase, as MS has done since E3 2009, was essential to help kinect to have an early adopters base that will show the peripheral to their friends/familly. In clear, it is important for MS to seduce the hardcore 360 gamers.
Indeed, I do believe that the very first Wii adopter were NOT casual. They were Ninty fans that wanted to play the next Zelda/Mario.
Time to Work !
