4k1x3r said:
No the next gen won't start by 2012/2013, because all the small developpers would die (THQ said something about that recenlty, that a new generation in 2/3 years may result in a headshot for the gaming industry). When we see that alot of them already disappeared, imagine what will happen if a new generation comes so early, only big developers would remain. And we all know most of the new ideas are coming from them. (the small ones) Plus, the current HD consoles are still at 299$ (eventhough x360 has cheaper pack). When they will drop to 249/199$, then we can assume that the new generation will come in 2 or 3 years. But i'm not seeing any 100$ price cut anytime soon. The only console that may see a successor by 2013/2013 is the Wii. But that's just my opinion. People may have enough (or not dunno, the future will tell) of playing motion controlled game in SD when they can have things close to them on Sony's and Microsoft's console. (That's not true for Mario/Zelda etc fans, they'll keep buying Nintendo consoles). Nintendo may need to upgrade his console. And Microsoft and Sony have just released their motion sensor, they won't release a new console soon, at least I don't think they will. (unless Kinect and Move will be compatible with the new one) So I'll stick with my prediction, userbase for games like GT is not that important. See what happened with God Of War 3, the userbase was 3 times lower (if I'm not mistaken) than when God Of War 2 came out, and look at the sales. Here's a "10 week totals" comparison of GOW, MGS and Halo franchise. Yea 10 weeks because the weeks of availability are not the same, so comparing the totals is pointless. And yea only those 3 because I couldn't find another one comparable. I thought of the FF franchise but it went on X360 so it's not an exclusive (eventhough FF13 on PS3 did not so bad compared to FF12 on PS2 with part of its sales going to X360) GOW franchise: GOW2 on PS2:
GOW3 on PS3:
MGS franchise: MGS3 on PS2:
MGS4 on PS3:
Halo franchise: Halo 2 on Xbox:
Halo 3 on X360:
With 17M Xbox when Halo 2 was released against 11M for X360. I know I'm forgetting many facts that come with their respective release but you can have an idea of the impact of huge franchises. They don't care about userbase, people who like these game will buy the console if the game is going there. I know that many years are separating GT4 from GT5, so the franchise may have lost some fans, but it gained new ones for sure. I don't think the fact that the userbase is lower will take alot of sales from GT5. Just in case, here's FF13 vs FF12. FF12 on PS2:
FF13 on PS3:
As I said with alot of PS2 users who went on X360 and bought FF13 on the console they owned. So FF13 did good. (and even more that the game was criticised for its linear progression) |
It's funny you mention price because I think prices support successor consoles being released in 2-3 years. When the 360 came out, PS2 was being sold for $180-$200, and when the PS3/Wii came out it was being sold for $140. If you add inflation in the last 5 years (2% yearly to my knowledge), thats at least $220, and $155. Well the Wii is already a $200 console, and one price cut away from $150-$180, and I bet is the PS3/360 get a price cut, it will be at least $50, maybe $100. So as early as next year we can see the HD consoles being priced similarly to the PS2 when the 360 came out, and Wii is already in that price bracket, and has been for the last two years.
As for small developers, many of them are loosing $$$ on current gane games, a lot of them want to make a new IP, but won't for this gen because it's almost over. the last good new IP I have seen from a small developer was Dead Space in 2008. Sony, MS, and Nintendo have published great new IP's this year, and all have something for next year, but for the most part all we are seeing in the market are sequels, and revisions of old franchises. Look at the most hyped games comming out, GT5, DKCR, Mass Effect 3, Gears 3, Killzone 3, LBP2, Resistance 3, Uncharted 3, Forza 4, NFS:HP, Assassin's Creed 3/Brotherhood, Twisted Metal, Mech Assault, Deus Ex, Call of Duty Black Ops/MW3, The Last Story, Zelda, Pikmin 3, Dead Space 2, the list goes on. How much longer do you think new consoles will continue to sell well if mainstream games are mainly sequels?
Most video game consoles last 5-6 years, and even if this gen is longer, it won't be any longer then 7 or 8 years as the mainstream console. PS1: 6 years, PS2: 6 years, XB: 4 years, GC: 4 years, N64: 6 years, SNES: 4 years, NES: 6 years, etc. The 360 came out in 2005, so this is already it's 5th complete year, 2013 would be 8 years, I really doubt the 360 will be the mainstream MS product for 8 years. Wii sales are already declining, so a 2012 Wii would be 6 years, and that makes sence. If PS3 came out in 2012 it would also match the 6 year mainstream lifespan PS1 and PS2 had.
Also MS got exclusive Map Pack Support for CoD games up to and including 2012. Why did they stop it there?
As for install base, I hate to make that arguement, GT5 will sell well despite the PS3 selling less then PS1 and PS3, but I think it will budge sales slightly. I mean 10 million on a console with lifetime 70 million units, thats hard. Especially since EMEAA sales are where GT5 will sell the most and lifetime I think 35-40 million is the best PS3 will make there, so selling 6/40 million units, thats hard.
Also those first 10 week arguements, I can easily kicka few out of the door.
Halo 2 was released in November, where Halo 3 was released in September, so Halo 2 benefited from Holiday sales in the first 10 weeks, where Halo 3 didn't. If you compare overall or first 20 week sales, you will see Halo 2 fell short of Halo 3. Also at the time of release the 360 user base was higher for Halo 3 then the userbase on XB1 for Halo 2.
God of War 2 was released on the PS2 after the PS3 was released. That largely affected sales, and GoW1 sold better.
MGS4 was heavily bundled with the last PS2 backward compatible PS3. One of my friends bought a PS3 then with MGS4 because the MGS4 bundle was the only one available with a backward compatible PS3. It also let people buy MGS4 at a reduced price in the bundle.
FF, thats a good valid one, I know that 800k difference can easily be accounted for many FF fans on the 360. Also isn't FFVII the best selling FF game, above FFX on PS2? PS1 sold 2/3rds as many units, but also FFVII is generally accepted as a much better game, and the first 3D FF game, so it was a big leap for the franchise too.
Look I hate user base arguements, I still agree with you, at least a large portion of sales translate over, but this only applies for the hardcore games. GTA: SA remeans the best selling GTA game (even if you combine 360/PS3 GTA IV sales, they still fall short of SA, but they do beat Vice City be about 600k currently).
If you look at more casual games, they scale difectly with userbase, and I don't mean casual like Mario Party, I mean hallmark franchise console pushers.
Halo 3 on the 360 sold over 11 million, Halo 2 on XB sold about 8 million.
Mario Kart Wii sold 23.18 million (currently, and still growing), but Mario Kart 64 only sold 9.87 million. 2.5 times less sales and the Wii console has sold about 2.5 times as many units as the N64. This also works with Double Dash which sold 6.96 million on a console of about 21 million units. All 3 Mario Karts seem to have sold 1/3rd the number of consoles sold.
Userbase arguements are stupid though, I beleive GT5 will sell 8.5 million units, thats about 80% as well as GT4. Considering the PS3 will likely only get a little over half the console sales of PS2, that already contradicts the userbase arguement.
The only thing I can say pretty certainly is GT5 will sell under 13 million, and most likely under 12 million units lifetime. GT games generally scale pretty close to the best seeling games on the console. GT3 sold 14.89 million, where GTA:SA sold 18.51 million. Then Vice City has 14.2 million, GTA III has 11.6 million and GT4 has 10.57 million.
On PS1 GT1 and GT2 make up the first and third best selling games, with FFVII inbetween them, and FFVIII not far below them.
Currently the best selling PS3 game is MW2, which looks like it well end up with something like 10.5 million lifetime sales. So realistically GT5 will sell around those levels too, maybe 1-2 million above, maybe 1-2 million below. I'm in favor of 8.5 million, but if you say ~12 million, I can't argue. Were on two different ends of a realistic sales bracket.
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