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4k1x3r on 07 November 2010
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Michael-5 said:
4k1x3r said:
Michael-5 said:
4k1x3r said:
Michael-5 said:

Did you even think before posting that?

Past GT EMEAA Sales

  • GT4 - 6.49 million
  • GT3 - 5.86 million
  • GT - 4.31 million
  • GT2 - 3.70 million
  • GT5P - 2.20 million

    • A more realistic EMEAA Range looks like 3-6 million, and EMEAA is more then just Europe. 6-8 million is thus not entirely unreasonable, and a valid opinion.

    GT5 will never sell 3M in EMEAA, even under 5/6M is unlikely, so 6-8M is reasonable. I don't know where you're living but you can't imagine the hype around GT5 in Europe, every single website that's about cars talks about GT5.

    And what I see in the figures is that overall the serie is only growing, GT2 is the exception.

    Basically GT5 is gonna be : 6-8M EMEAA, 3/4M NA, 1/2M Japan, 10M the low end, 14M the high end. My prediction is 12.5m.

    Ps. lulz for putting GT5P in the figures... I think you'll understand why. u_u

    6-8 is possible, but I don't think you can assume it. I watch a lot of Top Gear so I know the hype, but Fifth Gear had a special GT4 episode where Vicky essentially went and played the game before it was released. Jeremy Clarkson also had a segment where you cant match game times to real life tracks times (in a Blue NSX on that Mazda Circuit). For GT5, all he has done is referenced the game once on the show, and there is no Top Gear until 2011, so even if it's on the show next season, it's a bit late.

    GT4 got more hype the GT5 (from what I've seen), and Top Gear does hype Forza a bit too now to be fair.

    As for the series growing? Pay attention to sales. GT3 was a lone exception, it sold over 7 million copies in Americas where no other GT game has sold over 4 million units in Americas. Even then GT1 is the second most popular GT Game, so how exactly is the series growing? GT4P also sold more units in Japan in 1 year then GT5P did in 2 (GT4P was essentially a Japanese exclusive, it was released in some European countries a month before GT4, so you should ignore EMEAA sales for GT4P).

    As for your figures, Americas I 100% agree, Japan I agree, but it could sell 2.5 million there, but EMEAA I just don't understand why you assume such higher numbers. the best selling GT in EMEAA was GT4, which did get 6.5 million, but I'm a little shocked you think 8 million is reasonable. 1 in 3 PS3 owners would have to get the game if that were true, I just don't see that happening.

    Still your overall range seems reasonable, a tad high in my opinion, but this is your opinion. I mean there are just so many potential affecting factors, no one can be certain of anything. Personally I'm only critical of sub 6 million, and plus 12 million predictions, but only time will tell.

    P.S. I added GT5P just to show how it did compared to proper GT games. We know GT5 will do better.

    bold -> Wait wait wait -_- I was talking of EMEAA only, because that's what your figures are showing... I know that GT3 is the best selling GT, and that's for a single reason: bundles in Americas and I don't understand why GT5 is not bundled in NA, it would sell awesome instead of good.

    As for GT5P, it is - and no matter what everyone says - a big demo, that sold well because people had enough of waiting the real thing, but still a demo.

    And my prediction is high because I'm not seeing a new GT being released for at least 4/5 years again, so it'll continue to sell with good legs for several weeks.

    The Bold, my mistake. I see you point, and I'll admit it's a good one. However there are so many factors to consider when prediction GT5 sales. This is definatly 1 positive one, there are many more positive ones as well, but there are just as many negative ones. I mean GT3 and GT4 sold about 6 million in EMEAA where GT1 and GT2 sold about 4 million right,? A ratio of 3:2? Well I hate bringing in a userbase areguement as there are many flaws to userbase, but didn't the PS2 outsell the PS1 3:2? PS3 is below PS1 right.

    I don't question your prediction because you admit it's a bit high as well, and you have your reasoning. I'm only saying assuming it's going to sell better then any prior GT is a pretty strong statement. I'm only saying I think it would be a bit more reasonable if you extend your bottom bracket.

    Also many analysts predict successor consoles to arrive by 2012 or 2013 at the latest for thr HD consoles. GT6 might not come out for 4/5 years, but do you think PS3 software sales will be strong in 3 years? PS2 is still pushing hardware, but PS1 software sales didn't last that long into the PS2 era.

    No the next gen won't start by 2012/2013, because all the small developpers would die (THQ said something about that recenlty, that a new generation in 2/3 years may result in a headshot for the gaming industry). When we see that alot of them already disappeared, imagine what will happen if a new generation comes so early, only big developers would remain. And we all know most of the new ideas are coming from them. (the small ones)

    Plus, the current HD consoles are still at 299$ (eventhough x360 has cheaper pack). When they will drop to 249/199$, then we can assume that the new generation will come in 2 or 3 years. But i'm not seeing any 100$ price cut anytime soon. The only console that may see a successor by 2013/2013 is the Wii. But that's just my opinion. People may have enough (or not dunno, the future will tell) of playing motion controlled game in SD when they can have things close to them on Sony's and Microsoft's console. (That's not true for Mario/Zelda etc fans, they'll keep buying Nintendo consoles). Nintendo may need to upgrade his console. And Microsoft and Sony have just released their motion sensor, they won't release a new console soon, at least I don't think they will. (unless Kinect and Move will be compatible with the new one)

    So I'll stick with my prediction, userbase for games like GT is not that important. See what happened with God Of War 3, the userbase was 3 times lower (if I'm not mistaken) than when God Of War 2 came out, and look at the sales.

    Here's a "10 week totals" comparison of GOW, MGS and Halo franchise. Yea 10 weeks because the weeks of availability are not the same, so comparing the totals is pointless. And yea only those 3 because I couldn't find another one comparable. I thought of the FF franchise but it went on X360 so it's not an exclusive (eventhough FF13 on PS3 did not so bad compared to FF12 on PS2 with part of its sales going to X360)

    GOW franchise:

    GOW2 on PS2:

    Ten Week Totals: 1,005,651 35,130 549,587 1,590,368

    GOW3 on PS3:

    Ten Week Totals: 1,499,591 87,226 863,596

    2,450,413

    MGS franchise:

    MGS3 on PS2:

    Ten Week Totals: 967,623 785,387 866,092 2,619,102

    MGS4 on PS3:

    Ten Week Totals: 1,312,560 638,393 1,258,261 3,209,214

    Halo franchise:

    Halo 2 on Xbox:

    Ten Week Totals: 4,805,475 52,022 1,206,052 6,063,549

    Halo 3 on X360:

    Ten Week Totals: 4,284,032 89,739 1,533,055

    5,906,826

    With 17M Xbox when Halo 2 was released against 11M for X360.

    I know I'm forgetting many facts that come with their respective release but you can have an idea of the impact of huge franchises. They don't care about userbase, people who like these game will buy the console if the game is going there. I know that many years are separating GT4 from GT5, so the franchise may have lost some fans, but it gained new ones for sure.

    I don't think the fact that the userbase is lower will take alot of sales from GT5.

    Just in case, here's FF13 vs FF12.

    FF12 on PS2:

    Ten Week Totals: 1,466,128 2,278,339 1,026,110 4,770,577

    FF13 on PS3:

    Ten Week Totals: 992,687 1,824,319 1,148,461 3,965,467

    As I said with alot of PS2 users who went on X360 and bought FF13 on the console they owned. So FF13 did good. (and even more that the game was criticised for its linear progression)