Gran Turismo 5 will fail to sell...

[Michael-5]

4k1x3r said:

Michael-5 said:

4k1x3r said:

Michael-5 said:

Did you even think before posting that?

Past GT EMEAA Sales

GT4 - 6.49 million

GT3 - 5.86 million

GT - 4.31 million

GT2 - 3.70 million

GT5P - 2.20 million

A more realistic EMEAA Range looks like 3-6 million, and EMEAA is more then just Europe. 6-8 million is thus not entirely unreasonable, and a valid opinion.

GT5 will never sell 3M in EMEAA, even under 5/6M is unlikely, so 6-8M is reasonable. I don't know where you're living but you can't imagine the hype around GT5 in Europe, every single website that's about cars talks about GT5.

And what I see in the figures is that overall the serie is only growing, GT2 is the exception.

Basically GT5 is gonna be : 6-8M EMEAA, 3/4M NA, 1/2M Japan, 10M the low end, 14M the high end. My prediction is 12.5m.

Ps. lulz for putting GT5P in the figures... I think you'll understand why. u_u

6-8 is possible, but I don't think you can assume it. I watch a lot of Top Gear so I know the hype, but Fifth Gear had a special GT4 episode where Vicky essentially went and played the game before it was released. Jeremy Clarkson also had a segment where you cant match game times to real life tracks times (in a Blue NSX on that Mazda Circuit). For GT5, all he has done is referenced the game once on the show, and there is no Top Gear until 2011, so even if it's on the show next season, it's a bit late.

GT4 got more hype the GT5 (from what I've seen), and Top Gear does hype Forza a bit too now to be fair.

As for the series growing? Pay attention to sales. GT3 was a lone exception, it sold over 7 million copies in Americas where no other GT game has sold over 4 million units in Americas. Even then GT1 is the second most popular GT Game, so how exactly is the series growing? GT4P also sold more units in Japan in 1 year then GT5P did in 2 (GT4P was essentially a Japanese exclusive, it was released in some European countries a month before GT4, so you should ignore EMEAA sales for GT4P).

As for your figures, Americas I 100% agree, Japan I agree, but it could sell 2.5 million there, but EMEAA I just don't understand why you assume such higher numbers. the best selling GT in EMEAA was GT4, which did get 6.5 million, but I'm a little shocked you think 8 million is reasonable. 1 in 3 PS3 owners would have to get the game if that were true, I just don't see that happening.

Still your overall range seems reasonable, a tad high in my opinion, but this is your opinion. I mean there are just so many potential affecting factors, no one can be certain of anything. Personally I'm only critical of sub 6 million, and plus 12 million predictions, but only time will tell.

P.S. I added GT5P just to show how it did compared to proper GT games. We know GT5 will do better.

bold -> Wait wait wait -_- I was talking of EMEAA only, because that's what your figures are showing... I know that GT3 is the best selling GT, and that's for a single reason: bundles in Americas and I don't understand why GT5 is not bundled in NA, it would sell awesome instead of good.

As for GT5P, it is - and no matter what everyone says - a big demo, that sold well because people had enough of waiting the real thing, but still a demo.

And my prediction is high because I'm not seeing a new GT being released for at least 4/5 years again, so it'll continue to sell with good legs for several weeks.

The Bold, my mistake. I see you point, and I'll admit it's a good one. However there are so many factors to consider when prediction GT5 sales. This is definatly 1 positive one, there are many more positive ones as well, but there are just as many negative ones. I mean GT3 and GT4 sold about 6 million in EMEAA where GT1 and GT2 sold about 4 million right,? A ratio of 3:2? Well I hate bringing in a userbase areguement as there are many flaws to userbase, but didn't the PS2 outsell the PS1 3:2? PS3 is below PS1 right.

I don't question your prediction because you admit it's a bit high as well, and you have your reasoning. I'm only saying assuming it's going to sell better then any prior GT is a pretty strong statement. I'm only saying I think it would be a bit more reasonable if you extend your bottom bracket.

Also many analysts predict successor consoles to arrive by 2012 or 2013 at the latest for thr HD consoles. GT6 might not come out for 4/5 years, but do you think PS3 software sales will be strong in 3 years? PS2 is still pushing hardware, but PS1 software sales didn't last that long into the PS2 era.