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yo_john117 said:

Here are the all the possible situations I can think of.

1. KINECT completely bombs

2. KINECT has a really bad start but over time does better due to better games being released and software updates that improve on it 

3. KINECT starts off really well but fails not too long after due to lack of good games and support.

4. KINECT starts out great and continues to do great for a couple of years (like the Wii)

 

I personally think KINECT will be like the Wii (on a much lesser scale) and sell pretty dang good for a couple of years.  The only reason I could see KINECT flopping is if people just don't like it or if its not supported by good games.

1st and 3rd ones are the only ones I see happening, once the hype and MS marketing budget goes down so will sales