Mummelmann said:
Mr Khan said:
Netyaroze said:
Its a bold claim. And unlikely. But to all who dismiss it so fast. Its entirely possible.
I count with a Wii successor in 2012. And I can see Wii selling "just" about 100 Million Units.
Also it could be that if Kinect fails to be what MS expects then we can see a 360 successor sooner. And the PS3 could take the PS2 position and sell for 99-129 Dollar for years. And in the end it could even outsell Wii. But ofcourse everything has to be perfect for the PS3 from now on.
I expect WIIs marketshare to drop to 45% this year. I have trouble imagening Wii outselling 360 and PS3 combined over the holidays. And 2012 it could stop almost entirely when the successor is on the market.
Less likely is that the 360 wont eat massively into PS3 sales over the years.
Actually I can imagine Wii ultimatly finishing 3rd after 3-4 years additional time for PS3 and 360.
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But they won't get that time. Much like jarrod believes, i too imagine that a new console from Nintendo will force Sony and Microsoft to jump. This "long generation" is just smoke and mirrors, and ignores market realities, as well has hard lessons learned by both Sony and Microsoft that if you let the competition have their way with the market, you enter into an incredibly adverse environment. Like the Xbox, which despite being closer to PS2 in terms of features and 3rd party support, was only one tiny push away from the neglected and featureless GameCube, and that was strictly because of PS2 momentum afforded from an extra year on the market, or how it took the PS3 two whole years after launch to finally achieve third party parity, because Microsoft got developers on board so quick.
I imagine they're both scared of a new Nintendo console, because if Nintendo could actually get third party support for whatever crazy scheme they come up with next round, it'll be all the more difficult for Microsoft and Sony to play catch-up
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Underlined; actually, I think the massive success of the PS1 was the biggest factor for the PS2's massive sales, they already pretty much owned all 3rd party support and came off of a tremendous success and they were competing against a company which had treated 3rd parties poorly all along and had sold less than half as many home consoles at best (standalone, not all combined) and another that made OS' with extensions and a tad software (games) for a living that had never made a console before and relied simply on having a bigger processor and mainly support from PC game developers to conquer the market.
Also, I remember fondly the days when every time someone would say "ten year plan" or suggest that HD consoles were more future proof a lot of the most respected members would say that the Wii would live the longest for sure and force Sony and MS' hand in starting the next gen. Now, the consensus in here is that Nintendo will almost certainly launch first next gen. By all means, I agree with most of your post and the whole premise of this thread is beyond ridiculous (sorry OP) but it just fascinates me how quickly things change and how quick we are to forget.
This has truly been a topsy-turvy generation so far.
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To be clear, that was never me, but i always considered a five-year generation a natural for Nintendo. Wii may very well "outlive" PS360, but only in the same way that PS360 could ever possibly conceive of "beating" Wii, long after the generation has otherwise ended and people have stopped caring
And i agree that a lot of the PS2's momentum was inertia inherited from PS1, but if Xbox (or GameCube, even) had launched in 2000, it would've created a vastly different generation, even beyond the simple "extra year to sell" thing
