PS3 can still finish in first place.

[FinalEvangelion]

Darc Requiem said:

Mr Khan said:

Netyaroze said:

Its a bold claim. And unlikely. But to all who dismiss it so fast. Its entirely possible.

 

I count with a Wii successor in 2012. And I can see Wii selling "just" about 100 Million Units.

Also it could be that if Kinect fails to be what MS expects then we can see a 360 successor sooner. And the PS3 could take the PS2 position and sell for 99-129 Dollar for years. And in the end it could even outsell Wii. But ofcourse everything has to be perfect for the PS3 from now on.

 

I expect WIIs marketshare to drop to 45% this year. I have trouble imagening Wii outselling 360 and PS3 combined over the holidays. And 2012 it could stop almost entirely when the successor is on the market.

 

Less likely is that the 360 wont eat massively into PS3 sales over the years. 

 

Actually I can imagine Wii ultimatly finishing 3rd after 3-4 years additional time for PS3 and 360. 

But they won't get that time. Much like jarrod believes, i too imagine that a new console from Nintendo will force Sony and Microsoft to jump. This "long generation" is just smoke and mirrors, and ignores market realities, as well has hard lessons learned by both Sony and Microsoft that if you let the competition have their way with the market, you enter into an incredibly adverse environment. Like the Xbox, which despite being closer to PS2 in terms of features and 3rd party support, was only one tiny push away from the neglected and featureless GameCube, and that was strictly because of PS2 momentum afforded from an extra year on the market, or how it took the PS3 two whole years after launch to finally achieve third party parity, because Microsoft got developers on board so quick.

I imagine they're both scared of a new Nintendo console, because if Nintendo could actually get third party support for whatever crazy scheme they come up with next round, it'll be all the more difficult for Microsoft and Sony to play catch-up

Finally somoeone that has actually thought this through.

I don't agree with the OP that the sales will pass the Wii, but I do think that PS3 can do.  I'll go ahead and quote an earlier post of mine in another thread...

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=3723777

FinalEvangelion said:

PS2 - No.  That's 90% not going to happen.

The PS1, however, is possible.  The way the sales are steadily increasing means the sales will steadily decrease down the adoption curve by general marketing adoption curve theory.  Actually, the Wii is showing this to be pretty true - very fast acceleration and now it looks like it's deceleration is really fast as well.  We'll need a few more quarters to be sure on the Wii, though. 

http://www.quickmba.com/marketing/product/diffusion/

You can read about it here.  I'm thinking the PS3 is around half way through the curve.

So think we will see the highest sales of PS3 at $250 or $200.  The PS3 is looking sure to meet it's market projections  of 15 million this year.  At it's peak, I can see a 18m year, and then the sales levels will start to slowly decline.  The PS3 has the most current tech from all the consoles that correlates really well with HDTV / Blu-ray adoption.  That's another reason we're seeing such good sales on PS3 lately.

If you think the PS3 is going to beat the PS2 or Wii, you are probably out to lunch.  However, the same goes for the folks who think the PS3 is going to just suddenly fall off the cliff.  It's probably the same people who thought we were crazy that the PS3 could sell close to 50m the first 4 years on the market.

So saleswise (don't bring financials into the argument since this is about sales), I the PS3 won't be a complete failure (2nd place is almost a given at this point unless Kinect really changes the situation).  It won't be making any records either. 

The good news is that the market has expanded alot this generation and I don't think you can go terribly wrong with any of the consoles.  I could actually see all 3 consoles do more than 100m.  Unfortunately for some here, healthy competition is bad news.