PS3 vs PS2: PS3 is doing OK?

[dunno001]

postofficebuddy said:

dunno001 said:

Okay? Sure, I'll give it that. The fact that worldwide, it's down only 41% versus a much stronger competition isn't too bad. However, the price spin isn't entirely accurate; it failed to account for inflation. The $299.99 of (near) today is valued at $242.22 in 2001, or $364.23 in 2001 to 2009 (the last year availiable) dollars. So yes, the PS3 still costs more than the PS2, but I don't think that it will make that drastic a change.

In all honesty, though, I do think some peoples' projections for the PS3 are... far too optimistic. The PS2 has been able to maintain sales due to its being the undisputed leader of the last generation. The PS3, not in this situation, will see considerably shorter legs. And for the developing markets, I hate to say it, but piracy is rampant in them. The PS2, cracked 6 ways from Sunday, can sell systems because of the availiability of local games that are more reasonably priced to the economies of these countries. The PS3, having only a large crack in its shell, will be stunted in these regions, as games will not be seen as affordable to the masses in them.

I'm pegging the PS3 to be about 43-45 million at the end of this year. (If you want an exact number, for giggles, 44,444,444.) And, while I don't want to see it, I predict that Nintendo will announce its successor to the Wii next year. (And no, not a WiiHD, a true successor.) With it launching in 2012, the next gen will start, slowing the legs of everything currently on the market. I'm going to guess 12.5m for PS3 in 2011, 11m in 2012, 7m in 2013 (PS4 announcement/release), 5m in 2014, and another 5m in long, for lifetime of 85m. And I'd call that okay, even in light of what the PS2 did.

You think it'll only sell another 4 million for the rest of the year? It will likely do close to that in December alone. And in regards to emerging markets, lack of piracy doesn't seem to be hurting PS3 too much.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=3149828

http://gamrfeed.vgchartz.com/story/80883/pes-2010-sold-600000-copies-in-growing-latin-america-sw-market/

I can very easily see PS3 still shipping well over a million units a quarter well into 2015 and 2016. And hitting 70 million by the end of 2012 isn't out of the realm of possibility.

In 2 months and a week, yes. I personally think that Kinect will steal some of Move's thunder, and I also think that the success of GT5 Prologue will somewhat mute the effect of a proper GT5 release on system sales. (I'm not saying there won't be a bump, rather, it won't be as huge or sustained as some people hope.) This time span gives it an average weekly total of twice what it is now, which is an inflated number for Move's launch. As that boost shrinks, holiday sales will pick up, masking the change of events.

As for the 2015/2016 prediction, 4 million per year won't happen. There is no history for a system, other than a generation's winner, to be still selling that well 10 years after launch. This is why I said that the PS2's legs will be better- it can do that (albeit barely) 10 years after release. A system that is not as successful won't be able to replicate this.