Should PS3 be adjusted up?

[binary solo]

I'm gonna say yes it could do with an upward adjustment, but the current LTD number is credible from a statistically acceptable error standpoint.

If we consider 360, the Shpped to LTD difference (on 2 Oct LTD sales in VGC) was just under 1 million and I think that's a perfectly reasonable number of consoles to have in the retail channels at any given time. No way PS3 sell though will be higher than that, so maximum PS3 sold to consumer number LTD as of 16 October could be as high as 40.6 million. I think it's likely Sony has packed the retail channels a bit more than MS (after all MS was trying to run down it's stock of phat 360s during the last quarter), so I think PS3's LTD sell through is no more than 40 million.

As at 2 Oct VGC had PS3 LTD at 38.54 Million. Assuming a true LTD on 2 Oct of 40 million PS3s that means VGC's LTD accuracy is 96.35%. That's totally acceptable for any given console. But there's also the possibility that Sony stuffed the retail channel with 2 million consoles, meaning true LTD could be as low as 39.6 million. That would give VGC an accuracy of 97.3%. That level of accuracy accross all 3 home consoles would be freakishly accurate for a site that uses various sampling and artihmetic techniques to estimate sales.

So while I think PS3 LTD sales could, and probably should, get a modest upward adjustment, VGC's current LTD sales figures are actually a vindication of the ongoing estimation and refinement work that VGC does. So I congratulate VGC on it's continued level of overall accuracy and integrity.